Tuesday night, our computer forecast models are really backing off the chance for any snow to be mixed in with any light rain that will develop Wednesday morning.
The model that earlier Tuesday was most “bullish” on the chance for snow has backed off of the snow altogether. Another one of the models is hanging onto the chance for a little snow to form and be mixed with some light rain. A third model has a tiny bit of snow mixing with the rain over parts of Greene, Wayne and Lenoir Counties, and then quickly changing it all to light rain.
As I have been saying from the outset, this will be tough to get snow out of for several reasons-- like the surface temperatures being in the 40s, the soil temperatures being in the 50s, and the moisture is very limited.
Wednesday will bring another “brush” with some wintery weather to parts of Eastern Carolina.
Two different areas of moisture will be moving across our area during the day. The first will produce some scattered light rain first over our northern counties (along and north of U.S. 264 from Raleigh to Wilson to Greenville to Washington).
The second will then begin to produce some light rain along the coast (along and east of U.S. 17 from Williamston to Washington to New Bern to Jacksonville) by late morning.
Temperatures aloft continue to support a mix of light rain and snow early Wednesday morning, mainly along and north of U.S. 64 from Rocky Mount to Tarboro to Plymouth.
There will be very little moisture in the snow growth region of the clouds so whatever falls (rain or rain / snow mix) will be light early on when temperatures in the clouds will be cold enough to support the development of snow.
I am not expecting any accumulation of any light snow as it will be falling onto relatively warm ground. Then, temperatures will begin to warm in the column of air that runs from the ground up to where the snow forms and that would change any mixed precipitation into all rain by late morning.
Some light rain will then swing east through the region during the afternoon and bring the light rain to an end from northwest to southeast during the afternoon.