As Thursday evening The National Hurricane Center continues to watch a tropical wave about 500 miles southeast of the windward island. A hurricane hunter aircraft investigated the area of low pressure this afternoon. While 35 mph winds were found near the system, these were in the deeper thunderstorms well south of the ill-defined center. Dry air and Saharan dust to the north of the system as well as northwesterly wind shear have really limited activity. There continues to be a 70% chance for development over the next two days as the storm system moves into an environment slightly more favorable for development. Forecast models take this wave west toward Puerto Rico by Sunday before turning northeast later next week. Most of the models pass this system between North Carolina and Bermuda the middle of next week. If this were to develop before Bertha, most of the models keep the storm on the weak side, but we will continue to keep a close eye on this system
We are tracking a system for the weekend that is non tropical that could lead to flooding conditions. Over the next 5 days Eastern North Carolina could see up to 3 to 5 inches of rain.