I am tracking several tropical waves in the south Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. One wave over the Leeward Islands now is bringing much needed rainfall to that area and will then fall apart as it runs into strong winds from the west to east blowing across the Caribbean Sea. The second wave will likely become a tropical depression tomorrow and a perhaps a tropical storm (Ernesto) by Thursday. It should be over the Leeward Islands by Satuday afternoon and then move west into the Caribbean and probably get sheared apart (weakened or killed off) when it gets there. At present....chances are not really strong for this system to affect the mainland of the United States.
Previous Story, by Ellen Bacca
The Atlantic basin has been quiet for most of July, but as August approaches comes the start of tropical activity.
A wave of energy has spawned a batch of storms off the African coast --this is how most of our tropical cyclones, storms, and hurricanes form in the Atlantic.
This new batch is currently still located 1,150 miles west south west off the Cape Verde Islands. These storms are not organized yet. However, if they start to organize, we have about a 20 percent chance of this disturbance becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.
Most forecast models show this batch of storms tracking west north west towards Cuba. But since it is slow moving, it would take until next Tuesday to even be within a few hundred miles of our coast line.
If this system does develop into a Tropical Storm, it will be named Ernesto.