STORMTRACK 12 WEATHER CENTER -

As of 11:00 AM Wednesday, the StormTrack 12 Weather Team is tracking an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands.  

This area continues to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development for this low.

This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 15-20 mph.

We can expect for this system to strengthen to a tropical depression by late today or early Thursday morning.  Depending on the timing of tropical depression formation, it could then strengthen to Tropical Storm Ernesto by  Friday.

The intensity and path after Friday is still in contention depending on when this system become a tropical storm.  The models are still in agreement of wanting to take this storm South of the Caribbean towards the Gulf of Mexico.