A wet early start to the week is on the way.
Our set up for this Monday is that we have a front stalled out across eastern Carolina. To the west of that front we have fog as a problem this early Monday AM.
At the jet stream level we keep a trough over the eastern U.S. with pockets of cool air rotating through this eastern trough. For us that means the front will waiver back and forth across our area as the upper level shortwaves generate several waves of low pressure which will move across eastern Carolina.
One tracks across the area this morning with another of these low pressures tracking across on Tuesday with more clouds and storms for Tuesday. With a rich feed of moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, heavy downpours and damaging winds are the main severe weather threat we need to alert you to.
A brief break on Wednesday before some of the moisture from Helene could get pulled into the pattern for more rain on Thursday. But finally be next weekend the upper trough lifts out and we see a couple days of sunshine.
The tropics are about to get very active these next few week. I’m looking at a window between now and the 1st week on September where we’ll see several storms become named and around Labor Day there could be a threat to the eastern U.S. coast.
What was Helene has fallen apart along the Mexican coast and there is a chance some of the rainfall from this could get pulled north through the Gulf and may get sent along the front over the southeastern U.S. for later this week. The other storm is Gordon. It’s a category 1 storm that could impact the Spain & Portugal early this week.
But conditions are changing in the tropical Atlantic. What had been inhibiting development so far this summer could relax briefly during this window.
Already there are a couple healthy looking waves just off of Africa to start this week. So Isaac, Joyce, and Kirk could all be named by early next week. The next thing will be to determine how strong these storms are and if they will make their way towards eastern Carolina