Tropical Storm Ernesto is not posing a direct threat to us here in Eastern North Carolina, but we are closely tracking Tropical Storm Florence.
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO This storm remains poorly organized as it moves a little more slowly to the west at 20 mph. Forecast models are now forecasting it to track a little more to the northwest. The path still remains the same by moving it across the Yucatan Peninsula by Tues/Wed. The latest model runs show it moving a little farther inland. It will be interesting to see if the peninsula will weaken the storm to a remnant low or the storm will remain a tropical storm. Then, the models want to take it back into the Gulf of Mexico with extremely warm sea surface temperatures and strengthen it into a Cat 1 Hurricane as it gets closer to the Mexican Coast by Friday.
2. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE This storm is still out in the Atlantic. It is showing signs of weakening due to a large amount of wind shear. It is moving more on a westerly track today at 14 mph. As it gets closer to the US by Wednesday, forecast models are wanting to turn it back to a north-westerly track and by Friday weakening it to a remnant low. With Florence already showing signs of weakening, the intensity forecast could change which in turn could possibly change the forecast track. We do have the Bermuda High as a steering mechanism. Florence will be the center of attention here in the StormTrack 12 Weather Center.